Overview
Forecast profiles are part of the AGR forecasting engine. Forecast Profiles offer the ability to introduce seasonality to items where seasonality has not been detected based on the item's own sales history. This feature is particularly beneficial for businesses that have wide range of seasonal and newly introduced items.
The process of creating an item forecast with applied forecast profile involves two steps. First, we forecast the item without using the forecast profile to establish the baseline scale. Second, we distribute a one-year sum of the baseline forecast based on applied forecast profile.
Forecast Profile in Item Card
Create Forecast Profiles from the Item card details of any item in AGR.
Open the item card for any item.
Open the details section by either clicking on the i or on the Details tab in the card.
Navigate to the forecast settings section of the details.
Click on Forecast Profile.
Click on the open icon to pop up a window to create a profile.
The example below shows an item that is relatively new. It could be seasonal but does not have 24 months of sales history that AGR needs to detect seasonality on its own.
Create a profile
Once the pop up window to create a profile opens,
Click on the + Create profile button.
Enter a name for the profile.
Enter a description for the profile.
Drag the points on the lower axis to create the sales percentage for the profile. OR
Click on the numbers below the axis to enter values as percents.
Click on Save to save your new profile. If the sum is not 100%, AGR will scale the profile proportionally when the profile is saved.
Apply a profile
Once you have created a forecast profile, you can apply it to any item through the item's item card.
Click on the Forecast Profile field to drop down the profiles.
Select the profile you want to apply.
The example above shows that the forecast will recalculate as soon as you apply profile to an item.
Edit or delete a profile
Any Forecast Profile can be edited or deleted by
Opening the forecast profile pop up
Clicking on the trash can to delete OR
Clicking on the pencil to edit
AGR shows you how many items have the selected profile so you know how many items will be affected by editing or deleting the profile.
Remove or change an item's profile
To remove a Forecast Profile from an item, click on the undo arrow in the Forecast Profile field. Select a different profile by clicking in the field and selecting another profile from the dropdown.
Example use cases
You can use forecast profiles for a variety of reasons when AGR does not detect an item's seasonality.
Irregular demand
While the item's sales history provides enough data for the forecast to recognize seasonality, the presence of substantial uncertainty within the sales history can create hurdles for the item's forecasting model in accurately representing its seasonality. To enhance the accuracy of the forecast, it is advisable to apply a forecast profile.
New seasonal item
When launching a new item specifically for a season, like summer, knowing it will only be offered during the summer months, and recognizing the item's insufficient two-year sales history in AGR to produce a precise seasonal forecast, it is recommended to create a summer season forecast profile for the item.